Meteorologists Watching the Potential for Tornadoes in Parts of New York

Hot, Potentially Volatile Weather Coming to the 518

It's not time to panic, but with the extreme heat over the next few days, it's probably wise to pay attention to the forecast.

New York meteorologists say a complex of strong thunderstorms could develop late Tuesday into early Wednesday morning, bringing the potential for damaging wind, large hail, and even an isolated tornado.

A tornado touched down in Upstate NY last July.  Photo: WHAM ABC Screengrab

5% Chance of a Tornado

While the forecast remains very uncertain, the greatest concern is across Northern New York and northwestern Vermont, where the Storm Prediction Center has outlined a 5% tornado risk. Parts of the Capital Region sit in a 2% risk area, meaning the threat is much lower but not impossible.

To put that in perspective, a 5% tornado risk means roughly one out of every 20 storms in that area could produce a tornado. That may sound small, but it's significant enough for meteorologists to highlight it days in advance.

Six Have Touched Down in New York in 2026

While not terribly common, the volatile weather in Upstate NY can always be a concern. So far, New York has already recorded six tornadoes in 2026, and while tornadoes are still relatively uncommon here, they're no longer the once-in-a-generation events many of us grew up expecting.

The good news? Most storms won't produce a tornado. Still, if severe weather develops Tuesday night, it's a smart idea to keep your phone charged, have weather alerts turned on, and stay aware of changing conditions.

I'm not trying to push the panic button, but it's always better safe than sorry.