Will Upstate New York Wake Up to a White Christmas This Year?

Winter: An Upstate New York Way of Life

Winter might be a way of life in Upstate New York, but that doesn’t mean we all experience it the same way. Some people fully embrace the season by skiing, skating, and chasing snowstorms, while others (ME) aren’t exactly thrilled about icy windshields, endless layers, or the sun setting before dinner.

But if there’s one thing most Upstate New Yorkers can agree on, it’s this:
Our tolerance for winter goes way up if it comes with a white Christmas.

As we approach the big day, there's just something about waking up on Christmas morning to a fresh layer of snow that makes the cold feel worth it, even if we complain about it for the next week or so.

Do New Yorkers Still Want a White Christmas?

According to recent surveys, about 75% of New York residents say they want a white Christmas, even though they know how much snow usually overstays its welcome in January and February.

A “white Christmas,” by meteorological standards, only requires at least one inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning, which is just enough to give us that postcard-perfect look.

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Which New York Cities Have the Best Odds?

Historically, higher elevations and northern communities have dominated the list when it comes to chances of a white Christmas. Adirondack and Tug Hill towns are almost always the safest bets, while lower elevations and downstate areas trail far behind.

Here’s how some New York locations typically stack up:

• Newcomb – 91%
• West Turin – 88.5%
• Indian Lake – 88.5%
• Lake Placid – 86.6%
• Big Moose Lake – 85.8%
• North Creek – 81.8%
• Lowville – 77.9%
• Syracuse – 56.3%
• Buffalo – 52.7%
• Rochester – 51.5%
• Albany – 41.6%
• Islip – 13.7%
• New York City – 13.2%

In other words, if you’re dreaming of snow-covered trees and rooftops, Upstate beats downstate every time, but even here, it’s never guaranteed.

So… Will Upstate NY Have a White Christmas This Year?

Based on current long-range trends and forecast guidance, much of Upstate New York has a realistic shot at a white Christmas this year, especially in higher elevations and northern zones.

For the Capital Region, it’s a classic December toss-up.

Forecasts point to seasonably cold temperatures around Christmas, which is necessary because cold air helps any snow that falls stick around.

While no major snowstorms are locked in yet, small systems or pre-Christmas snowfall could be enough to leave at least a coating on the ground by Christmas morning!