Here’s How Hurricane Beryl Will Impact Upstate New York

The first hurricane of the year made landfall in Texas on Monday and forecasters say remnants of Hurricane Beryl may impact New York State. Here's what we know.

The 2024 hurricane season is off to a rough start. Hurricane Beryl, which formed on June 28, is officially the earliest-forming Category 5 hurricane to form in the Atlantic basin per the Weather Channel.

Beryl's impact in the Caribbean Sea was catastrophic, especially on the Grenadine Islands of Carriacou, Petite Martinique, Union Island, Saint Vincent, and Canouan. Beryl was Category 4 when it struck the tiny island on July 1.

It's estimated the storm caused over $5 billion in damages across the Caribbean islands and Venezuela, killed 13 people, and caused many more to go missing.

Beryl weakened into Category 1 strength, with maximum sustained winds at 80 mph, when making landfall Monday in Matagorda, Texas. Forecasters are currently tracking this historic system and currently predict it'll head to the Great Lakes by mid-week.

By then, it's believed Beryl will weaken further into a tropical storm or even a tropical depression.

As of now, forecasters from the National Weather Service anticipate Beryl to cross into New York by early Wednesday morning, July 10, and hit Central New York by 2 p.m. that afternoon.

Initial estimates say Beryl will bring heavy rain, flash flooding, and severe thunderstorms that can produce torrential rain and damaging winds.

Per the NWS:

Rainfall rates greater than 2 inches an hour will lead to isolated to scattered flash flooding. Stronger storms Wednesday afternoon could produce damaging winds and weak tornadoes.

Forecasters are mostly expecting heavy rain, thunderstorms, and wind gusts between Wednesday morning and Thursday evening.  The area could experience bands of heavy rain that could trigger flash floods - especially around creeks and surrounding streets.  The area most likely to experience this type of flooding are the Finger Lakes to the Adirondack foothills, such as Tug Hill.

It is also possible tornadoes can form if Beryl's low pressure edges further west and mix with an oncoming warm front.

This would mean it would not be very difficult to get some quick spin ups with the showers and thunderstorms that form in the late morning into the evening on Wednesday.

Beryl is expected to pass out of the area between Wednesday night and into Thursday.

It is still possible for Beryl to change paths and avoid striking New York entirely, but it's more likely the state will deal with some remnants of the storm from Wednesday to late Thursday.

Here is the current forecast per the NWS:

Tuesday: Chance of showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon, otherwise mostly sunny with a high around 94.
Tuesday Night: Overcast with a chance for showers and thunderstorms after 2 a.m., low around 71.
Wednesday: Early morning rain showers remaining steady throughout the day. Chance of thunderstorms. High around 84.
Wednesday Night: Stormy and rainy throughout the night, low 70.
Thursday: Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms, high 86.
Thursday Night: Chance of rain and thunderstorms, low 70.
Friday: Chance of rain and partly sunny skies. High around 86.

Get our free mobile app