In like a lion, out like a lamb - that’s how March is supposed to go. If that’s true for Upstate New York this year, then it’ll be a very fluffy, white, and cold lion. After a very underwhelming winter so far, meteorological models project we could make all that lost snow up on the back end headed into spring.

January was the fifth warmest ever recorded for Albany, and marked the first year that all 31 days of the month had highs that got above freezing. February has also been marked by rain and 40-degree days, with much less snow than usual.

Above-Average Snowfall Predicted For Upstate In March

LACKAWANNA, NY - DECEMBER 27: Residents on Nason Avenue clear the street and cars on December 27, 2022 in Lackawanna, New York. The historic winter storm Elliott dumped up to four feet of snow, leaving thousands without power and at least 28 confirmed dead in the city of Buffalo and the surrounding suburbs. (Photo by John Normile/Getty Images)
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The same weather system behind Winter Storm Piper, which was responsible for Los Angeles’ first blizzard warning in decades, arrives Monday night to end Upstate NY’s February with a foot of snow in many areas. AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Joe Lundberg says, “This is likely to be the biggest storm of the season to date for much of the Northeast, including New York City.”

This storm is only the start for a March that could give Upstate everything we missed in January. The monthly average snowfall is around 8-10”, but there’s already a precedent for wild snows to hit Upstate in March: the one-day record for Albany’s biggest snowfall happened on March 13, 1993, when the area was walloped by 22”.

Snow Could Ruin Upstate's Official Start Of Spring

BUFFALO, NY - DECEMBER 27: Good Samaritans help to push out a car along South Park Avenue on December 27, 2022 in Buffalo, New York. The historic winter storm Elliott dumped up to four feet of snow, leaving thousands without power and at least 28 confirmed dead in the city of Buffalo and the surrounding suburbs. (Photo by John Normile/Getty Images)
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AccuWeather predicts a surge of bitter cold and winter weather near the official start of spring on March 20. Another Polar Vortex, like the late-December storm that dumped 52” of snow on Western New York, could bring Arctic air into Upstate around that day. The site predicts at least five snowfall days in March, including another storm on Friday that could put parts of Upstate over the monthly average by the 3rd.

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This fits in with NOAA’s long-term models to track La Nina, which called for a colder end to February and beginning of meteorological spring. While less science-based, the Farmers’ Almanac predicts below-average temperatures and above-normal precipitation in New York and New England for March.

A map of how La Nina affects the US climate during winter.
NOAA/Climate.gov
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So what about going out like a lamb? Upstate could catch a break and get spring-like temperatures the very last week of the month, with the potential for days in the low-60s, but don’t put the sweaters away yet. Accuweather says April snow isn’t out of the question, either.

The Aftermath Of Winter Storm Elliot In Buffalo and WNY

A Bomb Cyclone powered by Arctic air dumped more than four feet of snow on Western New York just before Christmas. Thousands were left without power and at least thirty have been confirmed dead in Buffalo. Homes along Lake Erie received the worst of the winter, with many frozen solid.

Despite a travel ban, residents left their homes in days after for groceries and to begin cleanup. State Troopers and military police have been trying to enforce the law as much as possible. Cleanup crews have been trying to clear as much of the snow as possible and dump it into Lake Erie, but the number of abandoned cars in streets and parking lots has slowed progress.

There's currently no monetary estimate of damage to the region.

Gallery Credit: Cameron Coats

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