Boy, betcha THAT got your attention, huh?.   No, it's not MY formula.  It belongs to a college professor.  It's never failed since he predicted Reagan to win in 1984!

His name is Alan Lichtman, and he's a professor at American University.  And according to an article at USAtoday.com , this guy never fails to predict the next person to sit their posterior down in the chair on Pennsylvania Ave.He got it right for Reagan, GWB senior, Clinton, "W", and Obama!  He said it's a very simple system.  According to the article, there are 13 keys to reelection and if the incumbent party hits on at least 6, the president wins.

 

Here are a couple of examples from the article:

If the current President hasn't been involved in a personal scandal, he scores.  (Obama wins that one)

If the sitting President has a major win in foreign affairs, he scores (Well, he did nab Osama, right?)

 

You can also check the Newser.com article  to see a summarized version of the formula.  Very interesting. Now I use a different system.  If I write a song parody about a candidate and if Sean taps his right foot when I play it on the air,  that person is a shoo-in.  Works every time!  Here's an example.  I wrote this one in 2007 (with apologies to the Beach Boys for ruining their hit- Kokomo)

(in fact, if you listen to those lyrics, I actually predicted back then that he's capture Osama!)  Come to think of it, the heck with this professor!    YOU SHOULD START LISTENING TO ME!!!

Who do YOU think will win?  Do YOU have a formula?  Would love to know!